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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model