4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-T.Townsend pass incomplete short left to 83-N.Gray. Penalty on KC-74-G.Christian, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP