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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 90

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to IND 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-N.Hines to IND 42 for 10 yards (30-D.Bootle, 44-E.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.18 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 90, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.97 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP