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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 42 for -9 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], touched at IND 41, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at IND 35.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model