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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 3-Z.Pascal right end to WAS 8 for no gain (58-S.Toney; 55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 8, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model