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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 62

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model