Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 87

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(5:56) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 35, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 36 for 1 yard (39-J.Reaves, 22-D.Forrest).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 87, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model