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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 27 for 12 yards (51-D.Mayo; 59-J.Bostic). PENALTY on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model