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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.20 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model