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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to WAS 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.56 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP