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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas to PHI 1 for no gain (29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO +4.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model