4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 8

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to WAS 29 for 10 yards (34-C.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP