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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to WAS 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model