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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 61

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 22 for 12 yards (2-D.Brown; 51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model