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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model