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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 37

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model