Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 51

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(1:07) 17-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.18 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.10 EP

KICK -0.85 EP

28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
72% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model