Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 68

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(11:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to SF 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 25 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.43 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model