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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 35

Denver Broncos 5 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model