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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Denver Broncos 5

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP