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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 53

Denver Broncos 11 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to SF 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at SF 13, and recovers at SF 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model