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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 7-J.Brissett left guard to ATL 37 for 2 yards (95-T.Graham; 54-R.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.25 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model