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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 20 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model