Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

(14:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CLE 22, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model