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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to ATL 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-A.Green.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model