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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 3-C.York 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model