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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 4

Cleveland Browns 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku [97-G.Jarrett].

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model