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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 2

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP