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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 20 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to ATL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-33-R.Harrison.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.92 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -1.59 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP