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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.80 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model