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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to JAX 9, Center-45-R.Lovato. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at JAX 17 for 8 yards (3-Z.Pascal).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model