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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to PHI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 41, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model