4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to JAX 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 28 for no gain (21-A.Chachere).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.58 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model