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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model