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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 87% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model