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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown [41-J.Allen].

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.72 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model