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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to LAC 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 27 for 12 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model