Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-D.King to HOU 15 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann; 94-C.Rumph). PENALTY on HOU-35-G.Arnold, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.70 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model