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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model