Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 81

Houston Texans 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 34

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle intended for 83-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan at HOU 46. 23-B.Callahan to HOU 37 for 9 yards. PENALTY on HOU-59-K.Green, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 37. Penalty on HOU-59-K.Green, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP