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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 8-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model