4TH&DATA
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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(:02) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -1.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP