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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 26
Los Angeles Rams 6 – San Francisco 49ers 14
What Actually Happened
(7:24) 3-C.Akers right guard to SF 22 for 4 yards (7-C.Ward).
The Three Options
GO
+2.48 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.31 EP
- 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
KICK
+1.18 EP
- 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
