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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 6 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model