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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model