Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 9 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(13:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to SF 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 45 for 22 yards (11-R.Dixon, 34-J.Funk).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.26 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model