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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 9 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to SF 24 for 13 yards (29-T.Hufanga). 2 YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP