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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 8-M.Gay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model