Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(1:38) 11-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to SF 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-26-T.Burgess.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model