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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 31

Detroit Lions 6 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 17-D.Eberle 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model